Tag Archives: manage flow

Introducing Lead Time Forecasting Cards

Posted on September 10, 2014 by azheglov

I’m introducing a simple tool: lead time forecasting cards. Each card displays a pre-calculated distribution shape, using Weibull distribution with shape parameters 0.75, 1 (Exponential distribution), 1.25, 1.5, 2 (Rayleigh distribution), and 3. (Since I printed the first batch, I … Continue reading →

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Lead Time Distributions and Antifragility

Posted on September 9, 2014 by azheglov

This post continues the series about lead-time distribution and deals with risks involved in matching real-world lead-time data sets to known distributions and estimating the distribution parameters. One of the key ideas of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book Antifragile is the … Continue reading →

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How to Match to Weibull Distribution without Excel

Posted on September 8, 2014 by azheglov

A bit more than one year ago, I wrote a short, but fairly technical post on how to do this without complicated statistical tools, only using something found in many modern offices: spreadsheet software such as Excel. Here is the … Continue reading →

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Inside a Lead Time Distribution

Posted on September 7, 2014 by azheglov

My earlier post discussed: how to measure lead time how to analyze lead distribution charts how to get better understanding of lead time by breaking down multimodal (work item type mix) lead time data sets into unimodal (by work item … Continue reading →

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Analyzing the Lead Time Distribution Chart

Posted on September 6, 2014 by azheglov

This post is about one of the key measurements of flow we use in Kanban: lead time. We’ll talk a bit about how to measure it and analyze and use the results. Loosely defined, the lead time is how long … Continue reading →

Posted in Kanban | Tagged , , | 4 Comments