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Recent Posts
- The Weibull Training Wheels
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- Fitness for Purpose Diary, Part 3: Replace Scale with Taxonomy
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- Fitness-for-Purpose Diary, Part 1: Starting With (and moving away from) NPS
- Knowledge Discovery Process Revisited
- Kanban Is Not a Card, It’s a Space
- Forecasting Cards
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Tag Archives: manage flow
Introducing Lead Time Forecasting Cards
I’m introducing a simple tool: lead time forecasting cards. Each card displays a pre-calculated distribution shape, using Weibull distribution with shape parameters 0.75, 1 (Exponential distribution), 1.25, 1.5, 2 (Rayleigh distribution), and 3. (Since I printed the first batch, I … Continue reading
Lead Time Distributions and Antifragility
This post continues the series about lead-time distribution and deals with risks involved in matching real-world lead-time data sets to known distributions and estimating the distribution parameters. One of the key ideas of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book Antifragile is the … Continue reading
How to Match to Weibull Distribution without Excel
A bit more than one year ago, I wrote a short, but fairly technical post on how to do this without complicated statistical tools, only using something found in many modern offices: spreadsheet software such as Excel. Here is the … Continue reading
Inside a Lead Time Distribution
My earlier post discussed: how to measure lead time how to analyze lead distribution charts how to get better understanding of lead time by breaking down multimodal (work item type mix) lead time data sets into unimodal (by work item … Continue reading
Analyzing the Lead Time Distribution Chart
This post is about one of the key measurements of flow we use in Kanban: lead time. We’ll talk a bit about how to measure it and analyze and use the results. Loosely defined, the lead time is how long … Continue reading
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